Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Schmaltz on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 52.7% vs Schmaltz 41.2% (+12.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 67.2%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 61.4%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 68.6%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 64.4%
35.6%
64.4%
Tavares
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Tavares
Schmaltz
Last 8: Tavares 3-5 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Schmaltz
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
1
3
Tavares
Schmaltz
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Tavares
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (1,239)
39.5% (658)
+13.4%
Power Play
54.7% (309)
41.3% (92)
+13.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (178)
45.1% (51)
+4.9%
On power play, Tavares has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Tavares is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (602).
Tavares shoots left. Schmaltz is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (528).
Home / Away
Tavares
Schmaltz
Home
55.0% (864)
40.8% (424)
Away
50.8% (862)
39.3% (377)
By Period
Tavares
Schmaltz
P1
51.8%
38.4%
P2
51.4%
40.7%
P3
54.5%
41.0%
OT
66.7%
40.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
42.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
52.9%
Schmaltz
40.0%▼
46.0%
40.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2018 | 3 | 11:48 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 2 | 08:32 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 1 | 14:51 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 3 | 07:00 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 2 | 09:05 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 2 | 00:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 1 | 14:03 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 1 | 04:35 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |