Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Schmaltz 49.4% (+9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 54.2%
Defensive zone
Tavares 89.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 85.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 86.7%
86.7%
13.3%
Tavares
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Tavares
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Schmaltz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Schmaltz
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
48.1% (268)
+9.6%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
50.5% (91)
+10.0%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
58.8% (17)
-2.4%
On power play, Tavares has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Tavares is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (490).
Tavares shoots left. Schmaltz is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (291).
Home / Away
Tavares
Schmaltz
Home
59.7% (610)
49.0% (206)
Away
57.0% (698)
49.4% (170)
By Period
Tavares
Schmaltz
P1
57.2%
53.6%
P2
58.5%
46.2%
P3
59.4%
50.4%
OT
46.7%
16.7%
Final 5 min
57.0%
39.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2024 | 3 | 18:33 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 2 | 04:17 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 1 | 06:55 | Defensive | John Tavares |