Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Schmaltz 46.6% (+11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 67.8%
Defensive zone
Tavares 85.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 85.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 82.1%
82.1%
17.9%
Tavares
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Tavares
Schmaltz
Last 5: Tavares 4-1 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Schmaltz
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Schmaltz
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
45.9% (665)
+12.1%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
46.8% (111)
+10.2%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
50.0% (24)
+7.9%
On even strength, Tavares has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Tavares is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Tavares shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Home / Away
Tavares
Schmaltz
Home
57.8% (614)
44.7% (409)
Away
57.8% (554)
47.6% (391)
By Period
Tavares
Schmaltz
P1
58.0%
40.3%
P2
56.9%
47.6%
P3
58.4%
51.0%
OT
57.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
40.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 00:52 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 09:12 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 04:42 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 18:41 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |