Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +18.3% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Schmaltz 42.8% (+18.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 89.5%
Defensive zone
Tavares 87.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 87.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 87.9%
87.9%
12.1%
Tavares
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Tavares
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Schmaltz
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Schmaltz
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
38.5% (309)
+20.7%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
53.2% (79)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
25.0% (12)
+17.9%
On even strength, Tavares has a +20.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Tavares is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Tavares shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (309).
Home / Away
Tavares
Schmaltz
Home
57.5% (668)
38.0% (184)
Away
61.1% (684)
43.5% (216)
By Period
Tavares
Schmaltz
P1
58.0%
40.3%
P2
60.1%
39.9%
P3
61.0%
40.7%
OT
27.8%
70.0%
Final 5 min
60.7%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
41.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 04:50 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 3 | 14:06 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 08:52 | Defensive | John Tavares |