Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Schmaltz 42.5% (+12.1%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 19-11 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 87.8%
Defensive zone
Tavares 91.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 91.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 90.4%
90.4%
9.6%
Tavares
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
11
(30 meetings)
19
11
Tavares
Schmaltz
Last 10: Tavares 9-1 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
6
2
Tavares
Schmaltz
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
7
4
Tavares
Schmaltz
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
6
5
Tavares
Schmaltz
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
41.2% (3,399)
+12.8%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
47.1% (649)
+9.4%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
47.8% (134)
+2.8%
On even strength, Tavares has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,535).
Tavares shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (3,015).
Home / Away
Tavares
Schmaltz
Home
56.1% (10,503)
42.7% (2,089)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
41.9% (2,093)
By Period
Tavares
Schmaltz
P1
55.0%
41.1%
P2
54.1%
42.9%
P3
54.1%
43.0%
OT
55.9%
42.4%
Final 5 min
54.8%
42.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
42.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 00:52 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 09:12 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 04:42 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 18:41 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 3 | 18:33 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 2 | 04:17 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 1 | 06:55 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 04:50 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 3 | 14:06 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 08:52 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 10, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 3 | 18:55 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 11, 2020 | 1 | 08:31 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 3 | 17:24 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 3 | 12:51 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 3 | 04:23 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 7, 2018 | 2 | 06:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 7, 2018 | 1 | 14:43 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 7, 2018 | 1 | 12:02 | Neutral | John Tavares |