Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings). Tavares wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Zacha 54.4% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 20-10 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 82.6%
Defensive zone
Tavares 76.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 77.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 78.3%
78.3%
21.7%
Tavares
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
10
(30 meetings)
20
10
Tavares
Zacha
Last 10: Tavares 5-5 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
5
2
Tavares
Zacha
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
6
6
Tavares
Zacha
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
9
2
Tavares
Zacha
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
53.9% (787)
+5.3%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
63.2% (193)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
44.3% (88)
-1.4%
On even strength, Tavares has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Tavares shoots left. Zacha is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Tavares
Zacha
Home
57.5% (668)
56.7% (538)
Away
61.1% (684)
52.8% (530)
By Period
Tavares
Zacha
P1
58.0%
52.6%
P2
60.1%
54.8%
P3
61.0%
56.8%
OT
27.8%
59.1%
Final 5 min
60.7%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 14:48 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 17:03 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 3 | 12:30 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 3 | 12:20 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 3 | 12:14 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 2 | 01:03 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 1 | 18:10 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 1 | 05:20 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 2, 2023 | OT | 04:16 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 2, 2023 | OT | 00:27 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 19:25 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 15:42 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 13:10 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 11:09 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 12:06 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 00:16 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |