Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 36 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Zacha 49.1% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 52-33 in 85 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 93.5%
Defensive zone
Tavares 77.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 88.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 86.5%
86.5%
13.5%
Tavares
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
52
-
33
(85 meetings)
52
33
Tavares
Zacha
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
17
7
Tavares
Zacha
24 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
11
14
Tavares
Zacha
25 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
24
12
Tavares
Zacha
36 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
48.9% (5,102)
+5.1%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
55.6% (804)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
42.2% (555)
+8.4%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Zacha is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,921).
Home / Away
Tavares
Zacha
Home
56.1% (10,503)
49.7% (3,353)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
48.5% (3,108)
By Period
Tavares
Zacha
P1
55.0%
49.9%
P2
54.1%
49.2%
P3
54.1%
48.1%
OT
55.9%
53.1%
Final 5 min
54.8%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 19:46 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 19:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 19:23 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 09:48 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:05 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 06:51 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 03:32 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 17:59 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 09:36 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 09:23 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 14:06 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 11:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 03:40 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 07:42 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 00:13 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 25, 2025 | OT | 01:29 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 12:41 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |