Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 54.0%). Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Nosek 53.9% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 87.0%
Defensive zone
Nosek 64.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 61.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 61.2%
61.2%
38.8%
Tavares
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
5
(15 meetings)
10
5
Tavares
Nosek
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
0
Tavares
Nosek
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Tavares
Nosek
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
3
Tavares
Nosek
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (15,885)
55.0% (2,608)
-1.0%
Power Play
56.5% (4,221)
43.5% (46)
+13.0%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (612)
48.6% (397)
+2.1%
On power play, Tavares has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,318).
Tavares shoots left. Nosek is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,880).
Home / Away
Tavares
Nosek
Home
56.1% (10,389)
52.9% (1,606)
Away
52.7% (10,358)
55.3% (1,445)
By Period
Tavares
Nosek
P1
55.1%
52.5%
P2
54.1%
54.7%
P3
54.0%
54.6%
OT
56.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
54.7%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.4%
Nosek
56.0%▬
55.5%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2025 | 2 | 11:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 13:48 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 03:40 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 18:17 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 18:14 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 15:09 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 10:44 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 04:06 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 16:47 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 17:07 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 15:19 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 3 | 08:20 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 08:28 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 1 | 11:30 | Offensive | John Tavares |