Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Nosek 51.4% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 84.4%
Defensive zone
Tavares 60.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 84.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 74.6%
74.6%
25.4%
Tavares
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Tavares
Nosek
Last 5: Tavares 4-1 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Nosek
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Nosek
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Nosek
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
53.0% (400)
+4.7%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
33.3% (12)
+27.2%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
45.5% (44)
+10.9%
On power play, Tavares has a +27.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Tavares shoots left. Nosek is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (304).
Home / Away
Tavares
Nosek
Home
59.7% (610)
49.6% (244)
Away
57.0% (698)
54.2% (212)
By Period
Tavares
Nosek
P1
57.2%
53.1%
P2
58.5%
51.4%
P3
59.4%
51.1%
Final 5 min
57.0%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2025 | 2 | 11:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 13:48 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 03:40 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 18:17 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 18:14 | Offensive | John Tavares |