Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 53.7%). Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Nosek 53.6% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 86.3%
Defensive zone
Nosek 63.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 62.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 61.9%
61.9%
38.1%
Tavares
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
5
(15 meetings)
10
5
Tavares
Nosek
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
0
Tavares
Nosek
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Tavares
Nosek
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
3
Tavares
Nosek
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
54.9% (2,674)
-0.9%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
44.7% (47)
+11.8%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
47.4% (424)
+3.2%
On power play, Tavares has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Nosek is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,942).
Home / Away
Tavares
Nosek
Home
56.1% (10,503)
52.7% (1,631)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
54.8% (1,514)
By Period
Tavares
Nosek
P1
55.0%
52.3%
P2
54.1%
54.0%
P3
54.1%
54.6%
OT
55.9%
75.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2025 | 2 | 11:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 13:48 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 03:40 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 18:17 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 18:14 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 15:09 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 10:44 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 04:06 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 16:47 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 17:07 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 15:19 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 3 | 08:20 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 08:28 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 1 | 11:30 | Offensive | John Tavares |