Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nosek on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Nosek 51.4% (+7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 69.5%
Defensive zone
Nosek 74.9%
Neutral zone
Nosek 55.4%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 59.3%
40.7%
59.3%
Tavares
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Tavares
Nosek
Last 5: Tavares 2-3 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Nosek
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
3
Tavares
Nosek
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
54.4% (215)
+4.8%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
0.0% (1)
+60.0%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
23.5% (17)
+19.4%
On power play, Tavares has a +60.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Tavares shoots left. Nosek is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (154).
Home / Away
Tavares
Nosek
Home
57.5% (668)
50.4% (127)
Away
61.1% (684)
53.8% (106)
By Period
Tavares
Nosek
P1
58.0%
51.4%
P2
60.1%
51.3%
P3
61.0%
53.2%
Final 5 min
60.7%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 15:09 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 10:44 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 04:06 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 16:47 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 17:07 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |