Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Tavares wins 62.7% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 59.8% vs Karlsson 51.5% (+8.9%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 83.0%
Defensive zone
Tavares 53.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 78.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 68.4%
68.4%
31.6%
Tavares
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Tavares
Karlsson
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
5
1
Tavares
Karlsson
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Tavares
Karlsson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (1,043)
51.4% (735)
+9.5%
Power Play
60.4% (278)
63.5% (115)
-3.1%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
42.9% (133)
+4.7%
On even strength, Tavares has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Tavares is 62.7% vs left-shot opponents (831).
Tavares shoots left. Karlsson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Home / Away
Tavares
Karlsson
Home
63.5% (684)
52.3% (524)
Away
57.6% (658)
51.0% (459)
By Period
Tavares
Karlsson
P1
60.3%
50.7%
P2
60.4%
51.4%
P3
60.1%
53.2%
OT
92.3%
41.2%
Final 5 min
57.4%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2022 | 3 | 18:24 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 3 | 16:49 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 2 | 17:28 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 2 | 12:02 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 2 | 03:16 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 2 | 00:40 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 2 | 00:36 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 1 | 16:46 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 1 | 16:40 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 1 | 10:22 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 1 | 00:51 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 1 | 00:46 | Offensive | John Tavares |