Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Karlsson 55.6% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 63.8%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 53.2%
Neutral zone
Tavares 55.9%
Result
John Tavares favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
Tavares
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Tavares
Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Karlsson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
1
Tavares
Karlsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Karlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
56.3% (739)
+2.9%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
58.6% (181)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
47.2% (53)
-4.3%
On penalty kill, Karlsson has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Tavares shoots left. Karlsson is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Tavares
Karlsson
Home
57.5% (668)
56.5% (462)
Away
61.1% (684)
56.0% (511)
By Period
Tavares
Karlsson
P1
58.0%
57.1%
P2
60.1%
55.2%
P3
61.0%
56.7%
OT
27.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.7%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
56.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2024 | 2 | 18:38 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 2 | 16:40 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 14:51 | Defensive | William Karlsson |