Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 61.6% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Karlsson 54.9% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 74.4%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 71.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 63.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 54.2%
54.2%
45.8%
Tavares
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Tavares
Karlsson
Last 8: Tavares 6-2 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Karlsson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
2
Tavares
Karlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Karlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (914)
55.3% (897)
+2.2%
Power Play
60.5% (309)
61.1% (113)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
59.1% (22)
50.8% (132)
+8.3%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Tavares shoots left. Karlsson is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (752).
Home / Away
Tavares
Karlsson
Home
61.0% (661)
58.6% (560)
Away
55.3% (584)
52.2% (582)
By Period
Tavares
Karlsson
P1
58.6%
55.8%
P2
57.8%
55.6%
P3
58.4%
55.7%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
63.4%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2022 | 3 | 14:10 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 3 | 08:58 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 02:20 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 1 | 07:23 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 3 | 15:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 3 | 14:02 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 3 | 06:25 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 1 | 16:35 | Neutral | John Tavares |