Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.1% vs Backlund 50.5% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 50.6%
Defensive zone
Backlund 77.3%
Neutral zone
Backlund 61.7%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 67.7%
32.3%
67.7%
Staal
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Staal
Backlund
Last 10: Staal 4-6 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
0
Staal
Backlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
5
Staal
Backlund
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
Staal
Backlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (740)
51.3% (712)
+5.9%
Power Play
67.0% (88)
52.9% (51)
+14.1%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (187)
47.5% (217)
-3.6%
On power play, Staal has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Staal is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Staal shoots left. Backlund is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (704).
Home / Away
Staal
Backlund
Home
55.4% (518)
49.0% (449)
Away
55.7% (497)
51.8% (531)
By Period
Staal
Backlund
P1
53.6%
46.9%
P2
56.6%
54.7%
P3
55.7%
49.4%
OT
65.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.8%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
42.0%▼
54.0%
55.6%
Backlund
44.0%▬
44.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 16:36 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 11:43 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 08:51 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 04:45 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:57 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 1 | 13:15 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 1 | 13:08 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 1 | 09:42 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 1 | 09:00 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 1 | 08:49 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |