Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Staal wins 57.4% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 57.6% vs Backlund 50.3% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 11-9 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 57.4%
Defensive zone
Backlund 56.1%
Neutral zone
Backlund 59.4%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 58.0%
42.0%
58.0%
Staal
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
11
(20 meetings)
9
11
Staal
Backlund
Last 10: Staal 7-3 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
Backlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
5
Staal
Backlund
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
5
6
Staal
Backlund
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
58.9% (1,096)
51.0% (1,205)
+7.9%
Power Play
68.4% (57)
59.3% (108)
+9.1%
Penalty Kill
51.8% (222)
42.3% (234)
+9.5%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Staal is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (986).
Staal shoots left. Backlund is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,012).
Home / Away
Staal
Backlund
Home
57.0% (646)
51.2% (782)
Away
59.1% (729)
49.4% (765)
By Period
Staal
Backlund
P1
55.9%
51.5%
P2
55.4%
49.8%
P3
62.0%
49.9%
OT
70.4%
37.5%
Final 5 min
63.1%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
58.1%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2024 | 3 | 05:12 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 3 | 04:54 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 2 | 18:40 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 2 | 13:55 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 2 | 12:27 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 2 | 12:19 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 2 | 06:57 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 2 | 04:11 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 2 | 01:15 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 1 | 17:43 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 1 | 14:49 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 1 | 12:13 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 1 | 11:56 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 1 | 08:24 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 1 | 08:10 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 1 | 06:30 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 11:44 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 15:54 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |