Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Staal wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.2% vs Backlund 48.5% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 53.2%
Defensive zone
Backlund 59.1%
Neutral zone
Backlund 54.0%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 57.9%
42.1%
57.9%
Staal
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Staal
Backlund
Last 9: Staal 4-5 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Backlund
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
4
Staal
Backlund
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
Staal
Backlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,017)
50.4% (1,032)
+6.6%
Power Play
57.7% (26)
52.3% (107)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
45.1% (286)
40.6% (313)
+4.5%
On even strength, Staal has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (988).
Staal shoots left. Backlund is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,014).
Home / Away
Staal
Backlund
Home
54.3% (667)
48.7% (749)
Away
54.7% (662)
48.1% (703)
By Period
Staal
Backlund
P1
56.2%
50.4%
P2
57.0%
50.1%
P3
49.7%
45.8%
OT
68.4%
30.8%
Final 5 min
48.8%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.5%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 08:38 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 03:47 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2 | 17:59 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2 | 01:17 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 18:36 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:20 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 09:02 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 3 | 04:18 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 04:34 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |