Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 60.2% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Dowd 50.7% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 75.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 88.2%
Neutral zone
Dowd 69.0%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 62.8%
37.2%
62.8%
Staal
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Staal
Dowd
Last 5: Staal 2-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Staal
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,115)
55.2% (625)
+1.1%
Power Play
61.2% (67)
57.1% (7)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (292)
38.2% (220)
+13.9%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Staal is 60.2% vs right-shot opponents (528).
Staal shoots left. Dowd is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Home / Away
Staal
Dowd
Home
58.3% (705)
53.7% (445)
Away
53.3% (769)
47.7% (407)
By Period
Staal
Dowd
P1
54.5%
48.8%
P2
58.2%
49.3%
P3
54.1%
54.0%
OT
60.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
54.9%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.7%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2022 | 3 | 16:44 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 3 | 08:11 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 2 | 13:04 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 1 | 19:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 1 | 11:57 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |