Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 59.9% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 57.6% vs Dowd 48.3% (+10.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 89.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 66.7%
Neutral zone
Staal 68.6%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 61.3%
61.3%
38.7%
Staal
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Staal
Dowd
Last 6: Staal 4-2 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
0
Staal
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Staal
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
58.9% (1,096)
49.2% (778)
+9.7%
Power Play
68.4% (57)
58.3% (12)
+10.1%
Penalty Kill
51.8% (222)
44.0% (234)
+7.8%
On power play, Staal has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Staal is 59.9% vs right-shot opponents (389).
Staal shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Home / Away
Staal
Dowd
Home
57.0% (646)
46.3% (492)
Away
59.1% (729)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Staal
Dowd
P1
55.9%
49.1%
P2
55.4%
48.2%
P3
62.0%
46.9%
OT
70.4%
71.4%
Final 5 min
63.1%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
58.1%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2024 | 3 | 17:20 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 1 | 04:11 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 1 | 01:22 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 1 | 01:08 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 5, 2024 | 3 | 10:56 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 1 | 18:19 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |