Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 65.3% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Dowd 49.1% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 81.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 68.0%
Neutral zone
Staal 53.8%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 61.4%
61.4%
38.6%
Staal
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Staal
Dowd
Last 10: Staal 6-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
1
Staal
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Staal
Dowd
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (955)
51.7% (644)
+4.4%
Power Play
66.9% (142)
0.0% (2)
+66.9%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (242)
41.6% (221)
+1.4%
On power play, Staal has a +66.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Staal is 65.3% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Staal shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Staal
Dowd
Home
55.4% (663)
48.6% (451)
Away
54.4% (676)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Staal
Dowd
P1
55.1%
49.1%
P2
54.7%
47.3%
P3
53.9%
51.4%
OT
70.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
57.2%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 19:17 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 13:18 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 07:52 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 15:38 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 11:16 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 05:43 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:45 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 08:06 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:43 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |