Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 22 meetings). Staal wins 58.8% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Dowd 50.7% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 29-16 in 45 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 94.3%
Defensive zone
Staal 81.1%
Neutral zone
Staal 80.4%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 87.3%
87.3%
12.7%
Staal
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
29
-
16
(45 meetings)
29
16
Staal
Dowd
Last 10: Staal 6-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
18
4
Staal
Dowd
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
8
Staal
Dowd
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
9
4
Staal
Dowd
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
52.4% (6,009)
+3.5%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
56.1% (164)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
44.1% (1,635)
+3.9%
On power play, Staal has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Staal is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,553).
Staal shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Staal
Dowd
Home
56.4% (9,663)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Staal
Dowd
P1
55.2%
51.7%
P2
55.9%
50.4%
P3
54.9%
50.3%
OT
56.2%
45.9%
Final 5 min
56.1%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 19:17 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 13:18 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 07:52 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 15:38 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 11:16 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 05:43 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:45 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 08:06 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:43 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 14:20 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 2 | 08:50 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 3 | 17:20 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 1 | 04:11 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 1 | 01:22 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 1 | 01:08 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 5, 2024 | 3 | 10:56 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 1 | 18:19 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 3 | 16:44 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |