Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings). Staal wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Paul 53.4% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 9-9 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 53.0%
Defensive zone
Staal 53.7%
Neutral zone
Paul 53.8%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
Staal
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
9
(18 meetings)
9
9
Staal
Paul
Last 10: Staal 6-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Staal
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
3
Staal
Paul
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
8
4
Staal
Paul
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,115)
53.8% (753)
+2.5%
Power Play
61.2% (67)
58.9% (90)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (292)
47.4% (78)
+4.7%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (946).
Staal shoots left. Paul is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Home / Away
Staal
Paul
Home
58.3% (705)
54.2% (450)
Away
53.3% (769)
53.3% (471)
By Period
Staal
Paul
P1
54.5%
58.2%
P2
58.2%
50.6%
P3
54.1%
52.9%
OT
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.9%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.7%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 14:49 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 14:23 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 05:16 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 1 | 14:02 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 1 | 12:32 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 1 | 04:05 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 2 | 19:00 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 2 | 15:50 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 2 | 12:46 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 2 | 09:36 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 2 | 04:51 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 2 | 02:41 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 1 | 14:08 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 1 | 06:50 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 1 | 00:21 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |