Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Staal wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.2% vs Paul 50.0% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 12-12 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 62.8%
Defensive zone
Staal 56.6%
Neutral zone
Paul 50.6%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Staal
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
12
(24 meetings)
12
12
Staal
Paul
Last 10: Staal 3-7 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
3
4
Staal
Paul
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
5
6
Staal
Paul
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
4
2
Staal
Paul
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,017)
48.8% (666)
+8.2%
Power Play
57.7% (26)
53.8% (65)
+3.9%
Penalty Kill
45.1% (286)
60.0% (55)
-14.9%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (988).
Staal shoots left. Paul is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Home / Away
Staal
Paul
Home
54.3% (667)
49.7% (348)
Away
54.7% (662)
50.2% (438)
By Period
Staal
Paul
P1
56.2%
51.0%
P2
57.0%
47.4%
P3
49.7%
51.5%
OT
68.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
48.8%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.5%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 18:43 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 18:26 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 14:21 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 14:02 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 11:52 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 09:50 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 09:47 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 09:45 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 07:15 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 03:41 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:49 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 14:41 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 14:32 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 11:13 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 11:07 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 06:02 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:17 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 16:38 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 08:19 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 08:12 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |