Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Staal wins 57.4% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 57.6% vs Paul 53.9% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 77.0%
Defensive zone
Staal 69.5%
Neutral zone
Paul 57.7%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Staal
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
9
(17 meetings)
8
9
Staal
Paul
Last 10: Staal 4-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
4
Staal
Paul
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
4
1
Staal
Paul
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
3
4
Staal
Paul
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
58.9% (1,096)
53.1% (710)
+5.8%
Power Play
68.4% (57)
57.3% (199)
+11.1%
Penalty Kill
51.8% (222)
58.0% (69)
-6.2%
On power play, Staal has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Staal is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (986).
Staal shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
Staal
Paul
Home
57.0% (646)
56.0% (466)
Away
59.1% (729)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Staal
Paul
P1
55.9%
57.2%
P2
55.4%
54.9%
P3
62.0%
51.5%
OT
70.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
63.1%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
58.1%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 02:53 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 18:56 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 18:23 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 18:08 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 03:27 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 03:10 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 17:04 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 06:27 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 10:25 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 18:54 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 18:52 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 11:18 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 03:07 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 02:59 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |