Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 22 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Paul 52.2% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 48-44 in 92 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 60.1%
Defensive zone
Paul 59.5%
Neutral zone
Paul 61.0%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 60.3%
39.7%
60.3%
Staal
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
44
-
48
(92 meetings)
44
48
Staal
Paul
Last 10: Staal 5-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
7
15
Staal
Paul
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
15
16
Staal
Paul
31 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
22
17
Staal
Paul
39 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
52.5% (3,796)
+3.4%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
56.5% (480)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
46.7% (574)
+1.3%
On power play, Staal has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,773).
Staal shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Home / Away
Staal
Paul
Home
56.4% (9,663)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Staal
Paul
P1
55.2%
53.9%
P2
55.9%
51.0%
P3
54.9%
52.0%
OT
56.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 11:38 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 08:48 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 08:43 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 16:49 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 12:56 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 01:51 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 17:28 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 00:36 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 12:18 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 12:06 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 03:13 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 18:07 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 14:36 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 02:42 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 18:43 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 18:26 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 14:21 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 14:02 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 11:52 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 09:50 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |