Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.9% vs 54.1%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Paul 53.3% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 61.4%
Defensive zone
Staal 54.0%
Neutral zone
Paul 50.7%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Staal
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Staal
Paul
Last 10: Staal 5-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Staal
Paul
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Staal
Paul
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (955)
53.2% (327)
+2.9%
Power Play
66.9% (142)
61.4% (57)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (242)
50.0% (32)
-7.0%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Staal shoots left. Paul is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Staal
Paul
Home
55.4% (663)
54.6% (183)
Away
54.4% (676)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Staal
Paul
P1
55.1%
56.3%
P2
54.7%
54.8%
P3
53.9%
52.4%
OT
70.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
57.2%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 11:38 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 08:48 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 08:43 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 16:49 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 12:56 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 01:51 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 17:28 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 00:36 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 12:18 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 12:06 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 03:13 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 18:07 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 14:36 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 02:42 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |