Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 51.0% vs O'Reilly 52.6% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 57.4%
Defensive zone
Staal 76.5%
Neutral zone
Staal 60.8%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 65.4%
65.4%
34.6%
Staal
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
8
(8 meetings)
0
8
Staal
O'Reilly
Last 8: Staal 0-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Staal
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Staal
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Staal
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (790)
52.5% (1,177)
-0.2%
Power Play
54.4% (114)
54.6% (130)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (218)
52.8% (108)
-7.8%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Staal is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (739).
Staal shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,027).
Home / Away
Staal
O'Reilly
Home
54.9% (628)
54.9% (669)
Away
46.4% (530)
51.0% (774)
By Period
Staal
O'Reilly
P1
50.3%
52.4%
P2
52.4%
56.1%
P3
50.4%
49.8%
OT
55.6%
57.7%
Final 5 min
51.1%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
51.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2012 | 1 | 19:23 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2012 | 1 | 17:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2012 | 1 | 01:47 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 15, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 15, 2011 | 2 | 17:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 15, 2011 | 2 | 09:32 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 15, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 15, 2011 | 1 | 18:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |