Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Staal wins 57.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 57.6% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 15-9 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 66.3%
Defensive zone
Staal 87.5%
Neutral zone
Staal 56.3%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 61.4%
61.4%
38.6%
Staal
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
9
(24 meetings)
15
9
Staal
O'Reilly
Last 10: Staal 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
4
Staal
O'Reilly
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
6
3
Staal
O'Reilly
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
6
2
Staal
O'Reilly
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
58.9% (1,096)
55.0% (1,084)
+3.9%
Power Play
68.4% (57)
56.8% (303)
+11.6%
Penalty Kill
51.8% (222)
40.3% (149)
+11.5%
On power play, Staal has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Staal is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (986).
Staal shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Staal
O'Reilly
Home
57.0% (646)
54.8% (759)
Away
59.1% (729)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Staal
O'Reilly
P1
55.9%
55.3%
P2
55.4%
51.9%
P3
62.0%
54.2%
OT
70.4%
64.7%
Final 5 min
63.1%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
58.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 17:30 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 04:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 03:57 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 15:51 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 15:23 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 05:14 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 15, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 10:57 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 06:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 04:25 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 15:04 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 14:59 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 14:55 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 10:18 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 08:41 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 07:06 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 05:09 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 03:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |