Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (57.3% vs 56.8%). Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Staal wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 56.8% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 51.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 53.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 51.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Staal
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Staal
O'Reilly
Last 10: Staal 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Staal
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Staal
O'Reilly
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
58.9% (1,041)
56.6% (1,064)
+2.3%
Power Play
53.4% (73)
60.4% (260)
-7.0%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (171)
54.0% (261)
-4.9%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Staal is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (828).
Staal shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Staal
O'Reilly
Home
59.0% (578)
54.9% (801)
Away
55.9% (707)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Staal
O'Reilly
P1
57.1%
58.0%
P2
60.9%
56.7%
P3
55.8%
55.4%
OT
20.8%
64.7%
Final 5 min
60.5%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
57.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 02:31 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 1 | 08:19 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 09:08 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 04:56 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 2 | 08:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 2 | 03:44 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 1 | 13:41 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 1 | 03:11 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 1 | 00:08 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |