Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Staal wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.2% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 69.5%
Defensive zone
Staal 79.3%
Neutral zone
Staal 54.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Staal
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Staal
O'Reilly
Last 10: Staal 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
4
Staal
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
1
Staal
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,017)
56.2% (983)
+0.8%
Power Play
57.7% (26)
55.5% (254)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
45.1% (286)
52.0% (102)
-6.9%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (988).
Staal shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Staal
O'Reilly
Home
54.3% (667)
56.2% (697)
Away
54.7% (662)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Staal
O'Reilly
P1
56.2%
54.5%
P2
57.0%
55.5%
P3
49.7%
57.1%
OT
68.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.8%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 12:48 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 03:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 10:19 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 10:10 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 10:59 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 07:39 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 03:19 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 04:37 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 00:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 19:25 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 10:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |