Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.9% vs 55.4%). Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 65.0%
Defensive zone
Staal 59.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 58.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Staal
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
7
(15 meetings)
8
7
Staal
O'Reilly
Last 10: Staal 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
4
Staal
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
5
2
Staal
O'Reilly
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
2
1
Staal
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (955)
55.4% (826)
+0.7%
Power Play
66.9% (142)
57.9% (221)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (242)
50.4% (129)
-7.4%
On power play, Staal has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Staal shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Staal
O'Reilly
Home
55.4% (663)
55.8% (579)
Away
54.4% (676)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Staal
O'Reilly
P1
55.1%
57.7%
P2
54.7%
54.8%
P3
53.9%
54.3%
OT
70.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.2%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 15:56 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 13:05 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 12:41 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 10:25 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 07:01 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 1 | 14:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 10:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 12:02 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 11:56 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 06:10 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 03:23 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 14:38 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 12:00 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 06:34 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 04:40 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |