Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.7% vs 55.8%). Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 56.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 50.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 52.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 52.5%
47.5%
52.5%
Staal
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Staal
O'Reilly
Last 5: Staal 3-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Staal
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
2
1
Staal
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,115)
56.1% (690)
+0.2%
Power Play
61.2% (67)
64.6% (96)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (292)
45.9% (109)
+6.2%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (946).
Staal shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Staal
O'Reilly
Home
58.3% (705)
58.3% (408)
Away
53.3% (769)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Staal
O'Reilly
P1
54.5%
57.7%
P2
58.2%
54.8%
P3
54.1%
55.2%
OT
60.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
54.9%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 19:18 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 19:12 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 17:25 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 14:31 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 11:29 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |