Jordan Staal vs Ryan O'Reilly

All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.3% vs 56.0%). Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 66 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Staal 55.3% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-0.7%)
H2H factor O'Reilly leads 92-77 in 169 meetings
Offensive zone O'Reilly 56.5%
Defensive zone Staal 57.5%
Neutral zone O'Reilly 50.2%
Result Ryan O'Reilly favored at 50.4%
49.6%
50.4%
Staal O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
77 - 92 (169 meetings)
77
92
Staal O'Reilly
Last 10: Staal 6-4 O'Reilly

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
19
47
Staal O'Reilly
66 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
27
22
Staal O'Reilly
49 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
31
23
Staal O'Reilly
54 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Staal
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
56.2% (15,260)
-0.3%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
58.8% (3,445)
+3.9%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
51.4% (2,811)
-3.4%
On power play, Staal has a +3.9% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,773).
Staal shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Staal
O'Reilly
Home
56.4% (9,663)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Staal
O'Reilly
P1
55.2%
55.6%
P2
55.9%
57.0%
P3
54.9%
55.1%
OT
56.2%
62.2%
Final 5 min
56.1%
55.3%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%
51.0%
55.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%
55.5%
56.0%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Dec 17, 2025 3 15:56 Neutral Ryan O'Reilly
Dec 17, 2025 3 13:05 Defensive Jordan Staal
Dec 17, 2025 3 12:41 Defensive Jordan Staal
Dec 17, 2025 2 10:25 Defensive Jordan Staal
Dec 17, 2025 2 07:01 Offensive Ryan O'Reilly
Dec 17, 2025 1 14:09 Offensive Ryan O'Reilly
Dec 6, 2025 3 10:06 Offensive Ryan O'Reilly
Dec 6, 2025 2 12:02 Defensive Jordan Staal
Dec 6, 2025 2 11:56 Defensive Jordan Staal
Dec 6, 2025 2 06:10 Neutral Jordan Staal
Dec 6, 2025 2 03:23 Defensive Ryan O'Reilly
Dec 6, 2025 1 14:38 Offensive Ryan O'Reilly
Dec 6, 2025 1 12:00 Defensive Ryan O'Reilly
Dec 6, 2025 1 06:34 Offensive Jordan Staal
Dec 6, 2025 1 04:40 Neutral Jordan Staal
Mar 25, 2025 3 12:48 Neutral Jordan Staal
Mar 25, 2025 3 03:55 Offensive Ryan O'Reilly
Mar 25, 2025 2 10:19 Offensive Jordan Staal
Mar 25, 2025 2 10:10 Offensive Jordan Staal
Mar 25, 2025 1 10:59 Defensive Jordan Staal