Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Staal wins 53.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs O'Reilly 56.5% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 15-9 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 54.9%
Defensive zone
Staal 59.6%
Neutral zone
Staal 61.1%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 58.3%
58.3%
41.7%
Staal
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
15
(24 meetings)
9
15
Staal
O'Reilly
Last 10: Staal 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
8
Staal
O'Reilly
9 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Staal
O'Reilly
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
4
3
Staal
O'Reilly
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.7% (750)
57.1% (1,367)
-0.4%
Power Play
62.5% (120)
59.4% (286)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (153)
52.5% (257)
-6.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Staal is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (654).
Staal shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,201).
Home / Away
Staal
O'Reilly
Home
58.8% (522)
59.2% (936)
Away
52.7% (501)
54.6% (974)
By Period
Staal
O'Reilly
P1
60.8%
57.3%
P2
55.9%
57.5%
P3
51.7%
55.0%
OT
46.2%
71.1%
Final 5 min
56.5%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2019 | 3 | 15:20 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 3 | 13:46 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 3 | 10:51 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 3 | 10:44 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 3 | 07:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 2 | 15:53 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 2 | 12:24 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 2 | 11:47 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 2 | 06:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 2 | 03:30 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 1 | 18:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 1 | 10:44 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 1 | 07:05 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 1 | 06:59 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 3 | 15:04 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 3 | 11:18 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 3 | 07:04 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |