Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Lorentz on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Lorentz 50.0% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 66.3%
Defensive zone
Staal 64.7%
Neutral zone
Staal 51.9%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 65.3%
65.3%
34.7%
Staal
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Staal
Lorentz
Last 5: Staal 3-2 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
Lorentz
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
1
2
Staal
Lorentz
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (955)
52.2% (67)
+3.9%
Power Play
66.9% (142)
50.0% (2)
+16.9%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (242)
42.9% (21)
+0.1%
On power play, Staal has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Staal shoots left. Lorentz is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (55).
Home / Away
Staal
Lorentz
Home
55.4% (663)
55.4% (65)
Away
54.4% (676)
36.0% (25)
By Period
Staal
Lorentz
P1
55.1%
59.3%
P2
54.7%
47.1%
P3
53.9%
44.8%
Final 5 min
57.2%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 10:15 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 10:10 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 01:57 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 14:16 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:44 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |