Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Lorentz 48.6% (+6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 71.5%
Defensive zone
Staal 81.8%
Neutral zone
Staal 79.6%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 76.6%
76.6%
23.4%
Staal
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Staal
Lorentz
Last 6: Staal 4-2 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
0
Staal
Lorentz
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
1
2
Staal
Lorentz
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
48.9% (1,118)
+7.0%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
50.0% (26)
+12.7%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
41.9% (86)
+6.1%
On power play, Staal has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,773).
Staal shoots left. Lorentz is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Home / Away
Staal
Lorentz
Home
56.4% (9,663)
50.8% (606)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
46.2% (624)
By Period
Staal
Lorentz
P1
55.2%
53.0%
P2
55.9%
46.8%
P3
54.9%
46.1%
OT
56.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 10:15 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 10:10 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 01:57 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 14:16 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:44 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 2 | 10:33 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |