Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.9% vs 46.5%). Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 47.3% vs Stamkos 46.8% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 56.6%
Defensive zone
Staal 50.0%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 56.4%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 55.0%
45.0%
55.0%
Staal
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Staal
Stamkos
Last 9: Staal 7-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
4
1
Staal
Stamkos
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (552)
46.0% (767)
+1.6%
Power Play
49.1% (110)
50.0% (126)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
37.8% (111)
46.2% (26)
-8.4%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Staal is 47.8% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Staal shoots left. Stamkos is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Home / Away
Staal
Stamkos
Home
49.8% (400)
49.7% (441)
Away
44.1% (401)
43.6% (486)
By Period
Staal
Stamkos
P1
53.7%
43.7%
P2
43.9%
50.2%
P3
43.5%
45.1%
OT
50.0%
46.4%
Final 5 min
47.8%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
46.9%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2011 | 3 | 15:40 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 31, 2011 | 2 | 17:09 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 31, 2011 | 2 | 11:11 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 5, 2011 | 3 | 17:38 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 5, 2011 | 3 | 17:34 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 5, 2011 | 3 | 03:48 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 5, 2011 | 3 | 03:38 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 5, 2011 | 3 | 00:39 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 5, 2011 | 1 | 09:11 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |