Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Staal wins 60.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Stamkos 53.4% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 72.1%
Defensive zone
Staal 60.0%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 55.5%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 62.6%
37.4%
62.6%
Staal
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Staal
Stamkos
Last 10: Staal 6-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
3
4
Staal
Stamkos
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Staal
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,115)
55.3% (628)
+1.0%
Power Play
61.2% (67)
55.1% (216)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (292)
40.2% (87)
+11.9%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Staal is 60.2% vs right-shot opponents (528).
Staal shoots left. Stamkos is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (659).
Home / Away
Staal
Stamkos
Home
58.3% (705)
55.5% (499)
Away
53.3% (769)
51.9% (432)
By Period
Staal
Stamkos
P1
54.5%
50.7%
P2
58.2%
53.8%
P3
54.1%
55.9%
OT
60.0%
87.5%
Final 5 min
54.9%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.7%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 01:26 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 17:35 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 17:04 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 08:39 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 03:45 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 1 | 17:13 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 1 | 03:51 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 3, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 18:53 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 12:24 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 18:25 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 02:48 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |