Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.9% vs 55.7%). Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Staal wins 65.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 62.9%
Defensive zone
Staal 78.7%
Neutral zone
Staal 53.1%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 55.1%
55.1%
44.9%
Staal
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Staal
Stamkos
Last 10: Staal 4-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
4
Staal
Stamkos
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Staal
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (955)
56.1% (342)
+0.0%
Power Play
66.9% (142)
53.3% (92)
+13.6%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (242)
62.5% (8)
-19.5%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Staal is 65.3% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Staal shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Staal
Stamkos
Home
55.4% (663)
53.4% (208)
Away
54.4% (676)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Staal
Stamkos
P1
55.1%
55.6%
P2
54.7%
52.8%
P3
53.9%
59.1%
OT
70.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
57.2%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 18:20 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 12:57 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 10:05 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 03:41 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 03:25 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 10:31 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 13:10 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 11:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 00:36 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 00:18 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 19:27 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |