Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Staal wins 58.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.2% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 86.1%
Defensive zone
Staal 68.4%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 60.0%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 65.9%
34.1%
65.9%
Staal
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Staal
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Staal
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Staal
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,017)
49.3% (670)
+7.7%
Power Play
57.7% (26)
53.7% (121)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
45.1% (286)
33.3% (3)
+11.8%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Staal is 58.1% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Staal shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
Staal
Stamkos
Home
54.3% (667)
54.0% (400)
Away
54.7% (662)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Staal
Stamkos
P1
56.2%
48.6%
P2
57.0%
54.5%
P3
49.7%
45.4%
OT
68.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
48.8%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.5%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 06:02 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 07:54 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 13:16 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 05:48 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |