Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings). Staal wins 59.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 56.8% vs Stamkos 50.9% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 13-11 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 55.8%
Defensive zone
Staal 64.9%
Neutral zone
Staal 61.0%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
Staal
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
11
(24 meetings)
13
11
Staal
Stamkos
Last 10: Staal 5-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
4
5
Staal
Stamkos
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
5
3
Staal
Stamkos
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
4
3
Staal
Stamkos
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
58.9% (1,041)
49.3% (789)
+9.6%
Power Play
53.4% (73)
56.9% (181)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (171)
54.1% (98)
-5.0%
On even strength, Staal has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Staal is 59.1% vs right-shot opponents (457).
Staal shoots left. Stamkos is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (798).
Home / Away
Staal
Stamkos
Home
59.0% (578)
52.0% (512)
Away
55.9% (707)
50.2% (556)
By Period
Staal
Stamkos
P1
57.1%
42.1%
P2
60.9%
56.4%
P3
55.8%
53.7%
OT
20.8%
62.5%
Final 5 min
60.5%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
57.3%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 3 | 11:02 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 14:33 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 09:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 1 | 18:25 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 1 | 12:43 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 1 | 05:23 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 19:34 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 19:47 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 17:04 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 11:29 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 11:18 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 06:56 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 01:30 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 1 | 19:56 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 1 | 16:38 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 1 | 13:59 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 9, 2021 | OT | 01:25 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 2 | 14:40 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |