Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 98 meetings). Staal wins 58.8% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Stamkos 51.0% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 124-109 in 233 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 81.9%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 57.2%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 67.8%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 70.7%
29.3%
70.7%
Staal
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
109
-
124
(233 meetings)
109
124
Staal
Stamkos
Last 10: Staal 4-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
34
64
Staal
Stamkos
98 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
41
25
Staal
Stamkos
66 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
34
35
Staal
Stamkos
69 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
50.4% (9,799)
+5.5%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
55.1% (1,725)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
49.7% (825)
-1.7%
On power play, Staal has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Staal is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,553).
Staal shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,778).
Home / Away
Staal
Stamkos
Home
56.4% (9,663)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Staal
Stamkos
P1
55.2%
49.1%
P2
55.9%
52.7%
P3
54.9%
50.9%
OT
56.2%
54.3%
Final 5 min
56.1%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 18:20 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 12:57 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 10:05 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 03:41 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 03:25 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 10:31 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 13:10 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 11:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 00:36 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 00:18 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 19:27 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 06:02 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 07:54 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 13:16 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 05:48 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 14:06 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 19:21 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 10:00 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 14:35 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 05:32 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |