Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Staal wins 59.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 57.6% vs Stamkos 55.2% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 76.5%
Defensive zone
Staal 68.1%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 56.4%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 73.6%
26.4%
73.6%
Staal
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Staal
Stamkos
Last 7: Staal 1-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
5
Staal
Stamkos
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Staal
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
58.9% (1,096)
55.9% (499)
+3.0%
Power Play
68.4% (57)
56.3% (126)
+12.1%
Penalty Kill
51.8% (222)
58.3% (12)
-6.5%
On power play, Staal has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Staal is 59.9% vs right-shot opponents (389).
Staal shoots left. Stamkos is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (486).
Home / Away
Staal
Stamkos
Home
57.0% (646)
55.3% (349)
Away
59.1% (729)
56.9% (288)
By Period
Staal
Stamkos
P1
55.9%
57.0%
P2
55.4%
59.2%
P3
62.0%
51.5%
OT
70.4%
55.6%
Final 5 min
63.1%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
58.1%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 14:06 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 19:21 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 10:00 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 14:35 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 05:32 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 15:20 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 09:02 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |