Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Norris on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Norris wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 51.0% vs MacKinnon 45.9% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 74.7%
Defensive zone
Norris 70.9%
Neutral zone
Norris 82.0%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 77.9%
77.9%
22.1%
Norris
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Norris
MacKinnon
Last 8: Norris 5-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Norris
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Norris
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Norris
4
0
Norris
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (886)
45.8% (755)
+5.4%
Power Play
59.0% (83)
48.3% (60)
+10.7%
Penalty Kill
38.8% (67)
27.6% (29)
+11.2%
On penalty kill, Norris has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Norris is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (370).
Norris shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
Norris
MacKinnon
Home
55.6% (487)
49.5% (396)
Away
47.0% (549)
41.7% (448)
By Period
Norris
MacKinnon
P1
54.8%
50.2%
P2
51.3%
43.8%
P3
48.0%
41.4%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
54.4%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
51.1%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2021 | OT | 00:18 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 3 | 17:57 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 3 | 00:06 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 2 | 10:19 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 1 | 07:36 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 1 | 00:04 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |