Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Norris wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 53.4% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 79.0%
Defensive zone
Norris 53.6%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 58.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 63.1%
36.9%
63.1%
Norris
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Norris
MacKinnon
Last 8: Norris 3-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
3
Norris
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Norris
2
0
Norris
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Norris
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (560)
49.2% (1,266)
+4.4%
Power Play
56.0% (109)
54.9% (193)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
53.1% (98)
49.1% (55)
+4.0%
On even strength, Norris has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Norris is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Norris shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Norris
MacKinnon
Home
53.6% (373)
50.9% (740)
Away
54.1% (394)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Norris
MacKinnon
P1
61.8%
50.9%
P2
51.7%
51.8%
P3
49.8%
47.1%
OT
27.3%
58.8%
Final 5 min
55.7%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
53.8%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | 3 | 16:14 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 3 | 12:15 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 3 | 09:15 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 1 | 04:28 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 1 | 02:11 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 1 | 00:19 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |