Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Norris wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 51.9% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 54.6%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 56.8%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 56.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Norris
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Norris
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Norris
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Norris
1
0
Norris
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (542)
45.5% (1,190)
+6.7%
Power Play
54.4% (57)
56.4% (94)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (30)
40.0% (30)
+6.7%
On even strength, Norris has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Norris is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (206).
Norris shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
Norris
MacKinnon
Home
50.7% (351)
47.8% (670)
Away
54.0% (278)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Norris
MacKinnon
P1
55.6%
45.3%
P2
49.3%
48.5%
P3
52.1%
45.0%
OT
42.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.0%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
52.1%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 18:18 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 18:18 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 18:13 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |