Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Norris wins 43.4% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 49.7% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-1.8%)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 60.1%
Defensive zone
Norris 58.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Norris
MacKinnon
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (356)
50.0% (992)
+0.0%
Power Play
48.7% (76)
64.9% (148)
-16.2%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
34.4% (32)
+8.5%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Norris is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (145).
Norris shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Norris
MacKinnon
Home
47.2% (193)
53.3% (591)
Away
51.6% (246)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Norris
MacKinnon
P1
53.8%
49.9%
P2
48.2%
53.2%
P3
47.9%
50.8%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
45.6%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
49.7%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%