Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 51.0% vs Hertl 52.3% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 59.5%
Defensive zone
Norris 56.7%
Neutral zone
Norris 61.7%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
Norris
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Norris
Hertl
Last 8: Norris 3-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
2
1
Norris
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Norris
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Norris
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (886)
51.6% (1,084)
-0.4%
Power Play
59.0% (83)
61.0% (246)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
38.8% (67)
44.1% (136)
-5.3%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Norris is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (666).
Norris shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Norris
Hertl
Home
55.6% (487)
55.2% (696)
Away
47.0% (549)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Norris
Hertl
P1
54.8%
55.4%
P2
51.3%
54.8%
P3
48.0%
48.9%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.4%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
51.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2021 | 3 | 11:18 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 3 | 04:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 09:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 07:17 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 17:10 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 13:48 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 1 | 14:08 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 1 | 04:29 | Offensive | Josh Norris |