Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 49.7% vs Hertl 57.2% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 86.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 63.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 75.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 75.0%
25.0%
75.0%
Norris
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Norris
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
1
0
Norris
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Norris
1
0
Norris
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Norris
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (356)
58.1% (823)
-8.1%
Power Play
48.7% (76)
56.2% (265)
-7.5%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
62.9% (35)
-20.0%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Norris is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (294).
Norris shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Norris
Hertl
Home
47.2% (193)
59.7% (561)
Away
51.6% (246)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Norris
Hertl
P1
53.8%
51.6%
P2
48.2%
63.8%
P3
47.9%
58.6%
OT
0.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
45.6%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
49.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 14:57 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 11:25 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 04:38 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:46 | Neutral | Josh Norris |