Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Norris wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 53.4% vs Hertl 55.4% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 56.7%
Defensive zone
Norris 81.6%
Neutral zone
Norris 64.4%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 62.5%
62.5%
37.5%
Norris
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Norris
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Norris
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Norris
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (560)
54.1% (717)
-0.5%
Power Play
56.0% (109)
61.9% (210)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
53.1% (98)
58.1% (31)
-5.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Norris is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (471).
Norris shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Norris
Hertl
Home
53.6% (373)
58.1% (492)
Away
54.1% (394)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Norris
Hertl
P1
61.8%
57.1%
P2
51.7%
54.0%
P3
49.8%
56.6%
OT
27.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
55.7%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
53.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2024 | 3 | 16:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2 | 00:54 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |